MotoGP predictions 4-1

With the dust finally beginning to settle on the 2017 season and with pre-season testing right around the corner we take an early look at what this season could bring in the Moto GP and we stick our necks out on the line.

Top three candidates for taking the title this year is much of the same as last season. Marquez and Dovizioso to battle out for the top step and maybe just maybe we could get a three-way battle if Maverick Vinales is able to be a little bit more consistent.

1^st Marc Marquez

Marquez was pushing extremely close to his limit last season and if he doesn’t get the luck that he did last season with some of his spectacular saves he could well have to settle for a top three. He still comes into this season though as a favourite as there hasn’t been a talent like his since Stoner was on the Repsol Honda. His on the edge style and success reminds me of a prime Casey stoner who used to hit the front, pull away and sustain the lead that he has.

2^nd Andrea Dovizioso

Dovizioso has been a strong and capable rider for many seasons and was very unfortunate to be axed by Repsol Honda all them years ago but for all the adversity that he has had to deal with Dovizioso has always bounced back and proved people wrong and this forthcoming season he has a major point to prove on a bike that should now be developed the way that he wants it to be given the season that Lorenzo had compared to his Italian counterpart. This season Dovizioso comes into the season with a lot of expectation though as he is seen as the only rider who may actually have a serious chance to challenge Marquez for the world championship.

3^rd Maverick Vinales

Now he has the data he wants coming into the 2018 season and he has bedded himself into the role of being a factory rider Maverick Vinales could mount a serious challenge this season and could be a great threat to the world championship. We saw glimpses of what he can do when everything goes right for him, but he appeared to tail off a little bit towards the end of the season which left him a little adrift of the top two. If he can rekindle that early form that he seemed to have at the start of the 2017 season he could be a real problem to the top two.

4^th Valentino Rossi

I can’t think of anything more what the motorcycle racing world would like to see than Valentino Rossi lift the world championship. How likely is it to happen, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise, but it would be a bit of a shock. I’m not disputing that he will win some races this season the problem is that Rossi is still getting older and riders like Marquez, Vinales, Dovizioso and Zarco are becoming more and more experienced in the MotoGP so time is well and truly against the Doctor but if there is one man that could win a championship at the young age of … it would be Valentino Rossi.

 

 

 

 

Jonas Folger out for the 2018 season but who will replace him?

Folger has announced via his social media accounts that he will not be racing in the 2018 MotoGP championship due to Gilbert’s syndrome something he has suffered from since 2011, which was also the reason he missed the final four rounds of last season’s championship.

What does this mean for Folger?

He was one of the bright sparks of last season when he took a second place at his home Grand Prix at the Sachsenring, consistently finishing in the top ten all season, and settling in very well aboard the Tech3 machine. The contract he signed back in 2015, with Tech3, finishes at the end of the 2018 season but he could still keep his ride at Tech3 due to his consistent points finishes last season. The major highlight of last season for Folger being the Sachsenring Grand Prix been his best finish ins a season where he consistently managed to score a good amount of points.

Who could Tech3 bring in to pilot the M1?

There is a wealth of options for Tech3 to choose from, as their bike is one of the most competitive machines on the grid and is more than capable to finish in the top ten,

and top five at tracks that suit the Yamaha. There aren’t many riders out there who would be a suitable fit for such a task who aren’t at a team but there is a wealth of riders who could be aboard the Tech 3 machine.

Hector Barbera

Unlikely to make the move from Moto2 back to MotoGP but it isn’t something that is inconceivable he has GP experience, but he did struggle to leave a mark in the MotoGP. If he was given a chance to ride a competitive bike he may be able to leave a bigger mark in the MotoGP. At the age of 31 though he has a wealth of experience in Grand Prix racing but he could be on the decline in the MotoGP as he moves to the other side of his prime.

Likeliness = 3/10

Miguel Olivera

The KTM Moto2 rider will be hotly tipped to win the title this season. If he does manage such a success he could have the pick of teams coming into the 2019 season, but will KTM allow him to leave his contract early especially if they have him lined up to fill one of the seats on the factory KTM in the MotoGP. If he does leave will it be too early for him to move up to the top class or would he benefit from staying in the Moto2 series and try and wrap up the championship showing he has the ability to win a world title at the highest level.

Likeliness = 5/10

Jonny Rea

The three-time World Superbike champion will be looking to make it a fourth this season and has to come into the season as an odds on favourite but could he be lured away from Kawasaki when he knows he has something good there? It is doubtful but the draw of racing against the best riders in the world on a competitive bike is a massive draw. He could be well down on pay as it is rumoured that Tech3 aren’t a money spending giant and a three-time World Superbike champion should demand a comparatively high fee. He does have MotoGP experience though due to his days on the Honda which could be a huge positive for Tech3.

Likeliness = 6/10

Michael Van der Mark

The World Superbike rider that I think could have the best chance of filling the ride. The Dutchman has impressed early on in his World Superbike career and could be tipped as a world champion one day in the World Superbikes, if he was to stay in the class. With him already being on the Yamaha he would stand a good chance of making the move up to the MotoGP aboard the M1. But it isn’t fashionable to promote a rider from the World Superbikes into the MotoGP anymore or not as much as it used to be. The World Superbikes did turn into a retirement home at one point for veterans of the MotoGP with both Carlos Checa and Max Biaggi winning the title. I really hope that Van der Mark is given the chance in the MotoGP as he may come back better equipped to tackle Jonny Rea in the 2019 season if he doesn’t secure a permanent ride in the MotoGP. At the end of last season he replaced Folger for the final two rounds finishing 16th and 17th which isn’t bad for a MotoGP rookie.

Likeliness = 8/10

Ben Spies

A little bit of a wildcard but if I was to have a bet on who may be the rider to fulfil the role and who is available straight away with no contract arguments as well as a world champion pedigree and a former rider under, Tech3 boss, Herve Poncharal. Look no further than Ben Spies. It would be great to see him back in the series, but will he turn heads and challenge for podiums maybe so but more than likely he would be racing for points finishes and basically just be there. I want someone who will excite me like the Ben Spies of 2009 when he stole the World Superbike title away from Haga but unfortunately due to injuries and the fact he hasn’t ridden a MotoGP machine for a number of years it could all be down to Spies and whether he wants to return to a sport that he was forced to retire from due to injury.

Likeliness = 9/10

Nobody

The one thing I don’t want to happen is that Tech3 don’t try to find a replacement for Folger and instead draft in Yamaha test rider Katsuyuki Nakasuga to wildcard in a few races and help out with development at a race level. This would mean Zarco would undoubtedly receive more help from the Tech3 team while the other side of the garage would be focused on development for the Factory M1 Yamaha.

Likeliness 10/10

I really hope that a young upcoming prospect is given a chance in the MotoGP which could let fans assess who could be the best of the new breed of racers who are set to take over when eventually the “Aliens” retire. In addition, it allows for the said rider to experience the difference between their current series and develop an understanding for the bike in the MotoGP.

Valencia race day round up

The Moto GP season ended with slightly more interest than what was pre-mediated. The Moto 3 and Moto 2 world championships had already been sealed by both Johan Mir and Franco Morbidellli who were both excellent throughout the year. The Moto GP championship was still on the line, but some sort of miracle would have to happen if Andrea Dovizioso was to win the title as he had to make up a huge 21-point gap to Marquez.

Moto 3

The Moto 3 race was won by Jorge Martin who took a classy victory in Spain which was the first win of the season for the Spaniard. He led from start to finish maintaining a 5 second advantage over the chasing pack, which was led by Johan Mir and Marco Ramirez rounded off the all-Spanish podium.

Martin got the holeshot and never looked back in this one allowing him to show his class as a rider but had it not been for a crash by Gabriel Rodrigo coming out of turn eight, a long sweeping left hander, we could have had a much different race. Mir had to take aversive action to move out of the way of Rodrigo. Forcing the Spaniard into the gravel and eventually re-joined down in 19^th.

Fabio Di Giannantonio finished his championship off in spectacular fashion. The Spaniard was slipstreaming Marcos Ramirez and clipped the back of the Platinum Bay KTM and sent himself sliding out of the Grand Prix at around 130 MPH. Thankfully the rider was ok as he got back on his machine and rode back to the pits.

From that moment Martin had a considerable lead which he held effortlessly. The chasing pack were chopping and changing holding themselves up and new boy Dennis Foggia who was riding due to winning the Red Bull rookies cup was mixing it with fully fledged Moto Grand Prix racers and briefly held second position.

Mir regrouped from the off-tack excursion and was fighting his way back through the back at half race distance and John McPhee followed him through dragging the Scot up to a top 10 position who was badly injured over the course of the weekend.

Mir then had a target which was the chasing pack with five laps left he found himself in second position and proved why he is the Moto 3 world champion as he had made up 17 places in 20 and took a very well earned second place to cap off a brilliant 2017 for the Moto3 world champion.

Moto 2

The Moto 2 world champion had been crowned prior to the final round as Franco Morbidelli won the title and earned himself a seat in the Moto GP with his current Mark VDS team. There was still pride at stake though in this race

The race begun with Alex Marquez the younger brother to Marc Marquez on pole, world champion Morbidelli second and Italian Pasini rounding out the front row. The two Marc VDS boys got the holeshot with Marquez leading for the first few corners before Morbidelli seized the chance to overtake and lead from the front.

Morbidelli did what all great champions do which is stretch out and advantage and then maintain it. Marquez though did the exact opposite, as soon as he was passed by Morbidelli he fell backwards and came home in a slightly disappointing fifth.

Mattia Pasini looked to be having a solid ride until he threw his bike down the road. It has been a problem in recent weeks for Pasini as he is becoming a bin or win kind of rider, something that champions are not.

The race turned into a game of cat and mouse between Morbidelli and Oliviera. The KTM rider overtook Marquez and set his sights on Morbidelli but he had over two seconds to bridge, but time was on his side as, he managed to dispatch of the Moto 2 champion with 6 laps left.

Oliviera and the KTM have great race pace and for him to catch the world champion the way he did was quite a feat and the young Spaniard could be quite a force moving forward into next season as he took his third Moto 2 victory in a row concluding a strong finish to the season for KTM in Moto 2.

Moto GP

The media made a huge deal about this being a showdown, but it was nothing of the sort with Marquez qualifying on pole and Dovizioso being well down the order in ninth.

The script went to plan for Repsol Honda to begin with as both Marquez and Pedrosa were out front in first and second. Johan Zarco battled his way into second and placed himself into the middle of a Repsol Honda sandwich and the French man was then allowed through by series leader Marquez as he did not want to get involved in a battle for the lead.

Zarco wasn’t able to pull away from Marquez and him and Pedrosa perfectly held Lorenzo and Dovizioso behind them. Then Lorenzo had the infamous engine mapping 8 flash on his dashboard which came on his dashboard at Malaysia and it is apparent that meant that he should allow Dovizioso to pass him but Lorenzo did not simply allow him to get by and Dovizioso never forced the issue as he instead said after that Lorenzo was dragging both of them to the front.

Marquez then tried his best to hand the title to Dovizioso. Marquez overtook Zarco down the front straight and left all his breaking till the last minute and then he saved his best save of the season till last as he tucked the front end at over 100 MPH keeping the bike up with only his knee forcing him to run wide into the first corner and re-joined in fifth just behind Dovizioso.

With six laps left Dovizioso did manage to get past Lorenzo as he fell at turn five but he didn’t stay in front for long as he fell at turn eight pushing to try and bridge the gap between himself and Pedrosa. He ran on into the gravel trap and dropped his Ducati which crowned Marc Marquez world champion.

Quite rightly though Andrea Dovizioso came back to a hero’s welcome from his team. The Ducati man really did all he could this season but just came up against someone who is out of this world and has an unrivalled talent.

Out front thought there was a battle heating up as rookie of the year Zarco took on one of the elder statesmen of the sport Pedrosa for the final victory of the season. Zarco was under great pressure form Pedrosa for the final five laps and the veteran of the game made his move into turn one and never let Zarco have a look.

Pedrosa saw out the race and took his second victory of the season, Zarco was the highest finishing Yamaha again putting the factory boys to shame and Marquez rounded out the podium to secure his sixth world title. An honourable mention to Alex Rins as well who came home in a solid fourth making sure that Suzuki finished the season strongly and is something they will be hoping to build on coming into next season.

MotoGP predictions 9-5

5^th Johan Zarco

The highest Satellite rider will again be Johan Zarco, he has placed himself in the same position that Cal Crutchlow got himself into a few years ago when he was a part of the Tech3 team. Zarco with a little bit more experience and a little more composure as well as getting even more familiar with the machine could seriously turn a few more heads this season and could be a sub plot to the narrative of the narrative of the World Championship. He is in an envious position as he is the best of the rest. Not quite a factory rider as he has a few too many mistakes in him but on his day, he can mix it right at the top end and challenge for race wins and podiums. Which leaves him in a precarious position he is good enough for a factory machine but there isn’t one available to him. Ultimately, I believe he could be Yamaha’s successor to Valentino Rossi.

6^th Dani Pedrosa

The nearly man of the MotoGP, the bridesmaid but never the bride, he is the MotoGP’s Aaron Slight. Pedrosa always gets himself into a great position to challenge for the championship and falls at the last hurdle. He has been hampered by injuries throughout his MotoGP career having only completed four entire seasons in his 11 years so far in the premier class. With Pedrosa now becoming more of an elder statesman of the series previous injuries and high-speed spills could prove much more difficult to get over given his injury history. Due to this I can’t see him finishing in the top five this year age will catch him up and ultimately this could be his final bow on the Repsol Honda RC213V.

7^th Jorge Lorenzo

Lorenzo struggled at first with the adjustment to life on the Ducati in the first part of the season but towards the end of the season he began to pick up some good results were these results as good as what we are used to seeing him achieve no they weren’t. It looked promising when at Jerez he took his first podium aboard the Ducati but it was only one of three that he got this season with his teammate Dovizioso coming second in the world championship. So, this season I can’t see that getting any better given that Dovizioso is a Italian on an Italian bike he will be a number two rider this season.

8^th Cal Crutchlow

Cal really needs consistency if he is to break into the top five which is something that he has struggled with throughout his MotoGP career, so therefore I have him this far down the list. It is a shame as he really does have the potential to mix it with the top three as he has proven finishing on the podium in every season apart from his rookie season where his highest finish was fourth. He appears to have a good understanding now on the LCR Honda which gave him his first win in the MotoGP so this season Crutchlow may have a chance to finish in the top five if he can finish in more than 13 races something that he has only managed once.

9^th Alex Rins

The young Spaniard had an awful start to the 2017 season, which robbed us of seeing how well Rins could do as he only competed in two or the first seven races and only finished in Qatar. First he broke his ankle in a training accident then broke his left arm in free practice three at the Austin Texas Grand Prix. Once he came back to full fitness we got to see what he can produce.  With just over half a season of MotoGP racing under his belt Rins still has a lot to prove and offer to the motorcycling world. Why is he a top ten rider? The Suzuki is only going to get better and Rins has bags of natural ability, consistency and finishing in the top eight has to be a priority for him because very soon there is going to be an opening for someone to be aboard the M1 factory Yamaha.

MotoGP predictions 19-10

 

10^th Jonas Folger

Folger has a lot of potential there is no doubting that. The reason he is so low down the list is due to the ability that Zarco has already shown Folger only managed one podium finish at his home Grand Prix in Germany. Apart from that he was only able to finish sixth in Argentina and Catalunya. Due to the fact that Zarco had a such a good season it is quite plausible that he will get factory parts earlier than when Folger will which may leave him in the shadow of Zarco.

11^th Andrea Iannone

The Suzuki looked well last season and managed a lot of points finishes but it shows much more development than the KTM which is obvious as Suzuki has been in the MotoGP prior to this season with riders such as Shinya Nakano and Oliver Jacque. Consistency is the keyword again as Iannone has shown he has the ability to win in this class as he did in Austria in 2016 aboard the Ducati. But last season he only managed to have nine points finishes from 14 races that he actually finished.

12^th Danilo Petrucci

He has never had a bike that should finish in that top seven but Petrucci last season managed to out score his factory counterparts who were both more experienced in the class as well as one of them being a previous champion. Can he do that again no. Petrucci has the ability to finish second and 21^st. I did feel sorry for Petrucci as when Dovizioso had a good chance of winning the season Petrucci’s form suddenly dipped finishing 20^th and 21^st at both Aragon and Australia. So whether he had mechanics taken from him or lost parts to help Dovi have a better chance for the title who knows?

13^th Pol Espargaro

Nobody really knew what would happen when Pol went to KTM he has the ability to win a world championship as he has done in Moto2 when he lifted the 2013 title. It took Pol ten rounds to break into the top ten which is quite impressive given that his teammate Bradley Smith never managed that feat. The KTM and Pol will only get stronger this season as they have a full seasons worth of data which means he can be more selective with practice this season and work on set ups which can only mean he must have a better season.

14^th Jack Miller

The Aussie has made a move this season and has taken Scott Redding’s 2017 ride at Pramac which is a bike that clearly can mix it with the tops boys as Petrucci shown. Miller made a huge jump straight from Moto3 to the MotoGP back in 2015 and has got consistently better after he finished 19^th in his rookie season and finished 11^th last season. Due to the change in bike though I think that Miller could at first struggle to find his feet with the Ducati after changing from the Honda. I do think that ultimately this move will be better for Miller as the Ducati suits his riding style a little more which was proven at the end of season test at Valencia.

15^th Alvaro Bautista  

Another former world champion that I am tipping to finish outside the top ten. Last season Bautista had some great rides taking a fourth in Argentina and a 5^th at Mugello two very different circuits one that shouldn’t favour his bike and one that should. It is apparent that he enjoyed his best time in MotoGP aboard the Honda as he rode it to fifth in his first season aboard the LCR Honda. As for the Ducati he had a lot of solid top ten finishes, so it wouldn’t be a massive shock if he managed to finish the championship back in the top ten. So, the reason I have him finishing in 14^th is, I don’t believe he will have much factory support this year as the Pull and Bear Ducati is below the Pramac Ducati in Ducati’s pecking order.

16^th Thomas Luthi

The first of the newcomers to the MotoGP, the 31 year old Swiss has finally made the step up to the MotoGP. He has been ready for this move for a while now having finished in the top six of Moto2 since its formation back in 2010. He has done so as well on different chassis which appear to have not deterred him at all or even impacted on his performances and for that consistency is the reason he will finish as the top rookie this season. He has enough experience in Grand Prix racing to know when to push and how hard to push and with him been on a bike that has actually tasted victory in this class (albeit a wet race where Jack Miller won) I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luthi mixing it in and around the top ten all season.

 17^th Aleix Espargaro

He has had a strange life in MotoGP and is a rider I would love to see in a factory team that can seriously challenge for the championship. He is the only ever rider to secure a pole position on a CRT/open class bike which was quite the feat as well as dominating the open class on the Forward Racing Yamaha. So it is apparent that the ability is there which was shown when he was aboard the full factory Suzuki in the bikes first full season and managed to consistently hit the top ten while his rookie teammate Vinales was adjusting to life as a MotoGP rider. So he was unfortunate to lose his ride at Suzuki. This season he will again be in and around the top ten as he will be the number rider in the team and coming into his second season aboard the Aprilia he could score top tens throughout the season.

18^th Scott Redding

Scott Redding had a torrid time at Ducati he just couldn’t get the thing to work the way that he wanted it to. Despite these setbacks he still managed to finish a respectable 14^th last season but a rider who has as much potential as Redding does anything outside of the top ten isn’t living up to expectations. I do believe he will struggle at first on the Aprilia as he hasn’t coped well with changes to bikes throughout his career but if he can hit the ground running there will be an interesting sub plot to this championship, as Redding and Aleix Espargaro could end up battling for the number one rider in their team.

19^th Bradley Smith

Bradley Smith had an absolute nightmare of a season in 2017 all of which was hampered by a finger injury due to a crash at Catalunya. Prior to the crash he was making steady progress to the development of the KTM finishing on the points in three of the first six races. After the crash he only managed another four points finishes in 2017 and completed the season finishing in 21^st, accumulating just 29 points. The KTM is getting better at an alarming rate and with the off season giving Smith the time to rest any injuries he should have a much better season. All of which depends if he can stay injury free.

MotoGP predictions 24-20

With the first test of the 2018 season right around the corner we take a look at how the 2018 season could potentially shape up.

20^th Franco Morbidelli

Morbidelli had never stepped foot on the top step of the podium but he managed that feat eight times last season on his way to winning the Moto2 world championship. Since then he has been promoted by current team MarcVDS to the MotoGP and will pilot their RCV213 this season. But why is the current Moto2 world champion so low down the order? It took Morbidelli four season to eventually win a Moto2 race and in that time, it took him over ten races to score a top ten finish. So clearly the Italian takes time to adjust to his new surroundings. But his style does suit a MotoGP bike refined and precise and he has a trump card in Valentino Rossi. I do believe that within three years we could see Morbidelli fall back down to Moto2 similar to the move that Sam Lowes has made.

21^st Takaaki Nakagami

Nakagami finished last season in seventh place in the Moto2 world championship, amassing one race win and four podiums. He has signed with LCR Honda and will partner up with Cal Crutchlow. The bike that Nakagami will ride gives him the opportunity to challenge for top ten finishes maybe even top five at tracks he prefers but I am still a little confused by the signing of Nakagami to the LCR team. With options such as Miguel Olivera, Alex Marquez and even Francesco Bagnaia it stuns me that the 25 year old was chosen for the ride. It appears, the Japanese manufacturer wants a Japanese rider to be in the class on their bike which is fine but other younger and faster riders will have been available for LCR to expand with.

22^nd Tito Rabat

It’s hard to think that a former Moto2 world champion would be so low down the order here. So far though the dream of MotoGP has been a nightmare for Esteve Rabat who has managed one top ten finish in the MotoGP since he came into the series back in 2016. With a change of bike this season the Spaniard he will be hoping for a change of fortune as he is aboard the Avantia Ducati that Hector Barbera rode last season. His riding style does not suit the power that the MotoGP bikes have though as he struggles to carry the corner speed that he was once able to in Moto2 which helped him win the championship. If he is unable to make a mark with the Ducati then a swift return to Moto2 will be needed for the Spaniard so we are able to see him at his best.

23^rd Karel Abraham

The Czech Republic rider has somehow accumulated six years of racing in the MotoGP with a career best finish of seventh at Assen last season. This season he will be teammate to former world champion Alvaro Bautista, I can’t see Abraham making a mark at all in the MotoGP and points scores will be his primary aim of the season, as it is every year. He managed ten point finishes last season which was a vast improvement on his previous season in MotoGP where he managed zero points finishes. How teams still sign him every season perplexes me it is a ride that could potentially go to an up and coming rider in Moto2 or Moto3 I would rather Johan Mir ride the Ducati.

24^th Xavier Simeon

Finally, we move onto one of the strangest signings of the season but one I really like. Xavier Simeon hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with his history in Moto2 but I cant help but feel he is a rough diamond that just needs polishing up or in this case a MotoGP ride. His bold and aggressive riding style could really suit the MotoGP. The former Superstock 1000 and European Superstock 600 champion has a degree of racing pedigree about him and clearly bigger and more powerful bikes suit his style as he was able to win the 2009 Superstock title. The Belgium rider could turn a few heads this season at the back of the grid and I wouldn’t rule out a top ten finish from him at all but whether he can achieve such a feat with a star studded line up I’m not sure.